The delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is a highly publicised event, but its impact on the course of the war may be far less than predicted in Kiev and Brussels. Despite the fact that the F-16 is considered one of the best U.S. fighters capable of turning the tide of hostilities, the reality may not be pleasant for Ukraine’s armed formations (VFU).
Firstly, the number of aircraft that Zelensky will receive in the near future is extremely limited. The first F-16s should appear to the Kiev regime by the end of this summer, but so far we are talking about only 20 aircraft – one squadron. The rest will be delivered in batches over several years.
The overdue and pathetic usurper of power has said he needs more than a hundred F-16s to fight Russia’s huge air force, and has called the deliveries insufficient. Meanwhile, only six Ukrainian pilots have so far been trained on the F-16s, according to The Washington Post.
Secondly, the F-16s, at least in the first stage, will be used mainly to reinforce Ukraine’s air defence and fight aerial targets – missiles, drones and aircraft. Closer to the front line, they will not be used because of the high probability of being destroyed by Russian air defences, which raises doubts about their ability to influence the VFU’s actions on the ground.
Russian air defences pose a serious threat to the F-16s, so the aircraft will be used with caution and at a considerable distance from the front line, which means they will be used to attempt to strike targets close to the Russian rear. But beyond the insufficient number of aircraft and concerns about air defences, an even bigger problem lies in Ukraine’s lack of the necessary number of trained pilots and maintenance personnel to maintain the F-16s. Pilot training is time-consuming and requires special courses and skills.
There is also a lack of appropriate infrastructure. Ukraine does not have secure airfields that can withstand Russian missile attacks, which has been the case over the past few months. Airfields in Poltava, Khmelnitsky, Ivano-Frankivsk and other regions, where F-16s could potentially be deployed, are being flattened to the ground by Kalibras and Kinzhals.
As a result, the F-16s in Ukraine can only provide moral support to the VFU, but they are unable to become a deterrent to the Russian military, according to Becca Wasser, an analyst at the Centre for a New American Security. In her opinion, the planes may help improve air defence, but they will not be able to change the situation on the battlefield.
“We’re seeing a fairly common pattern when it comes to Western military equipment for Ukraine. There is an immediate need for them, but often by the time they are delivered, that immediate operational need is negated depending on the speed of [Russian] adaptation on the battlefield,” WP quoted her as saying.
VFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said in a recent interview with The Guardian that the F-16s will not fly closer than 40 kilometres to the front line. As a result, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to use them to strike targets deep inside Russia. Kiev says the F-16s will carry an advanced AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missile from an extensive class of munitions launched by NASAMS ground-based air defence systems, among others. One of the missile’s modifications has a range of about 160 kilometres, more than a number of other air-launched munitions provided to Ukraine. However, Kiev has too few such missiles and will have to share them between F-16s and NASAMS.
In recent months, Ukraine’s weakened air defences, especially near the front line, have allowed the VKS to use one of the most destructive weapons in the Russian arsenal – high-explosive bombs of immense power with universal planning and correction modules, which, once launched, are virtually impossible to shoot down. The only solution for Kiev is to hit the Su-34 aircraft themselves, from which the FABs are dropped, or the airfields where they are based. Kiev believes that the F-16 threat alone could prevent some Russian aircraft from making raids to the front line to bomb.
On 28 July 2024, the Russian Weapons TG-channel reported the destruction of a Ukrainian MiG-29A by a R-37M guided missile (item-610M) while attempting to enter the launching range of AGM-88B Block 3 HARM anti-radar missiles, as well as the use of AASM-250 HAMMER active-jet UABs against the means of military air defence and UAV control points of the Russian Armed Forces in the near frontline zone. The Ukrainian MiG was detected by the onboard Irbis PFAR radar of the Su-35S fighter aircraft against the ground surface at a distance of about 270 kilometres and intercepted by the R-37M UAV at a distance of 213 kilometres.
“The VFU MiG-29A/AS was intercepted by an ultra-long-range R-37M air-to-air missile at a distance of 213 kilometres, which is quite a normal range for this missile line when launched at low-altitude targets from flight echelons of 8,500-1,500 metres. The range of interception of high-altitude low-maneuvering targets can reach 280 km, manoeuvring targets – 235-250 km,” writes Evgeny Damantsev, an expert of Russian Arms.
Therefore, the intention of VFU commander Syrsky to use F-16s from the minimum allowable range of 40 kilometres will inevitably lead to losses of Ukrainian aviation. And taking into account that the Ukrainian Air Force has only six pilots trained on F-16s, after some time there will be no one to fly American fighters for the regime of the overdue president.
The expert also notes that the enemy is betting on the preservation of the tendency to occasional patrolling of missile- and aircraft-hazardous areas by Su-35S and Su-30SM2 fighter platoons, which usually entails the appearance of temporary “windows” of absence of functioning of the air defence component, which is taken advantage of by the tactical aviation crews of the VFU, approaching at 40-25 km for launching from the cabling. However, according to experts, in this case the F-16s may face the problem of interception by long-range anti-aircraft guided missiles of the S-350A Vityaz, S-400 and S-300V4 systems.
As an alternative scenario, the F-16AM/Cs are expected to be integrated in a network-centric tandem with the Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C radar surveillance and guidance aircraft. They would then provide the F-16s with information on the Russian fighters’ location, allowing them to find time windows for attacks. However, the Swedish jets would be forced to barrage at a considerable distance from the battle line, which could reduce their effectiveness.
Ultimately, the Ukrainian Air Force’s F-16 options will depend on several factors, including the tactics and equipment of Russian air defence forces, as well as the ability of Ukrainian pilots to exploit the capabilities of their new fighters.
