The Russian aviation industry is striving to expand its markets; in the next 3-4 years, the industry will reach stable serial production of several types of aircraft at once. Cooperation with countries interested in acquiring modern passenger aircraft will take into account the current geopolitical situation and focus on those partners with whom stable economic and political relations have been established.
The assessment of market demand for Russian aircraft, including the MC-21, Tu-214 and SJ-100, should take into account the characteristics of analogues, as well as the needs of potential customers. At the same time, the projected volumes of passenger traffic in various regions of the world make it optimistic to consider the possibility of exporting Russian civil aircraft.
The export component in the serial production of the MC-21 aircraft should be one of the fundamental factors for successful commercialisation of the promising Russian airliner. If we rely only on the domestic market, the cost of the aircraft will not be recouped. This was stated by Fyodor Borisov, chief expert of the Institute of Transport Economics and Transport Policy of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, within the open studio of FederalPress at the Russian Transport Week.
‘Export for the aviation industry should always be an imperative. Orientation only on the domestic market is wrong, as it is a very complex, very expensive product. It is not necessary to focus only on the domestic market, because in this case investments will not pay off,’ the expert said.
On the global passenger air transport market, the demand for narrow-body airliners with a range of up to 6,000 kilometres is growing. Airlines are modernising their fleets, and Asia’s growing economy is boosting air travel. Airbus, the world’s largest aircraft manufacturer, predicted in its annual report on trends in the aviation industry in summer 2024 that the global passenger aircraft fleet will more than double in the next two decades to almost 42,000 airliners.
In this regard, Fyodor Borisov notes the existence of a significant sales market for the MC-21. According to him, deliveries will not be made to unfriendly countries, but there is a sufficient number of countries that do not support the global West and have a need for new aircraft. It is such states, ready to co-operate with Russian manufacturers, that should be targeted when offering the MC-21 for export.
However, insufficient production rates of the aircraft at the Irkutsk Aircraft Plant (IAZ) may put an end to the MS-21 export. Currently, the IAZ is expanding its production capacities, new workshops are being built, and modern processing equipment is being imported. Upon completion of the current stage of modernisation, the plant will be able to produce 36 MC-21-310 airliners per year. Taking into account that within the next 10 years the Russian civil aviation will be decommissioning foreign aircraft, this volume of production is not enough, and it is not possible to talk about the start of export deliveries, even if there are potential customers.
The Comprehensive Programme for the development of the Russian aviation industry until 31 December 2030 provides for the production of 50 MC-21 aircraft in 2027, and from 2028 it is necessary to reach the production rate of 72 aircraft annually. To ensure such volumes, there is a clear need for further expansion of production capacities. They should be comparable to those that IAZ will have after modernisation.
Thus, in order to solve the ambitious task of replacing all Boeing and Airbus medium-range aircraft in Russian airlines with the MC-21 within a decade, it is necessary to build a new aircraft plant or modernise one of the existing ones, which is underutilised or idle, and organise serial production of the airliner there. In addition, it becomes urgent to significantly increase the production of PD-14 engines in Perm, which will also require the expansion of production capacity.
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