RuAviation

Aeroflot, Russia’s flag carrier, is navigating 2025 amid a modest but sustained decline in passenger traffic. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation estimates total passenger traffic for the year at approximately 109.6 million, down about 2.1 million passengers (−1.9% relative to 2024, when traffic reached 111.7 million). The Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation confirms this trend and projects a 1–2% decline versus last year.

Domestic services remain the backbone of the market: over 70% of traffic is domestic, and southern routes—traditionally the busiest during the spring–summer season—account for up to one quarter of total passenger flows. In 2025 the market shows mixed dynamics: domestic sectors are shrinking while international services are steadily recovering, with total traffic sustained by a rebound in overseas flights. For the Aeroflot Group, this pattern requires a careful balance between overseas growth and efficiency gains on domestic routes.

Today many southbound flights operate with excess block time due to non‑optimized routings. This undermines operational efficiency, while recent proposals to straighten air corridors could reconfigure flight patterns and improve the economics of regional services. Reducing block times, optimizing fleet deployment, and cutting operating costs are priority tasks across Russian civil aviation.

Aeroflot supports the initiative to straighten routings to southern Russian cities. At an extended session of the Federation Council’s Committee on Economic Policy (the upper house of Russia’s parliament), Aeroflot CEO Sergey Alexandrovsky said implementing such measures would free up carriage capacity and increase aircraft utilization.

A major external challenge for Russian carriers in 2025 is heightened foreign presence in the market, independent of sanctions. Foreign airlines may carry up to 23–24 million passengers on routes to and from Russia this year—a record level. This intensifies competition and raises risks for domestic carriers. “We see increasing presence of foreign operators in the Russian market. This is significant pressure—not only on the Aeroflot Group but on Russian commercial aviation as a whole,” Alexandrovsky stated.

The growing foreign presence forces Russian carriers to find domestic efficiencies, optimize fleets, improve service quality, and strengthen business resilience, including through cost containment. In the first half of 2025 Aeroflot’s average fares rose by roughly 6%. However, cost inflation outpaces fare growth. Higher prices for jet fuel (aviation kerosene), maintenance and airport services increase unit costs. Aeroflot notes that current economic conditions do not allow full recovery of increased costs through higher fares. As a result, route profitability is under pressure, especially on short‑ and medium‑haul sectors where demand is more price‑sensitive.

Infrastructure charges add further cost pressure. After airport modernizations, airline expenses have grown sharply. New facilities typically bring higher handling and service fees, which are reflected directly in passenger fares.

Aeroflot Scales Back MC-21 Orders, Rejects Further Superjet Expansion

“With current bank rates, the burden on infrastructure projects is substantial. That is why an additional infrastructure levy was introduced to support aerodromes. At the same time, we must carefully consider the number of such infrastructure projects under current conditions. What we face now is that the commissioning of each new airport leads to a multiple increase in carriers’ costs,” the Aeroflot CEO said.

Rising unit costs driven by higher operating expenses make improved fleet efficiency a key stabilization tool. Fleet modernization and renewal reduce per‑passenger costs, improve fuel and service efficiency, and partially offset the impact of other rising expense items. For Aeroflot and other Russian carriers, fleet renewal is therefore both a strategic priority and a prerequisite for long‑term financial sustainability.

Alexandrovsky reported that Aeroflot plans to acquire more than 100 MC‑21‑310 aircraft by 2030. The company currently holds a firm contract for 18 airframes and options for 90 more. Aeroflot remains the only carrier to sign a firm agreement for the MC‑21. “This is only the beginning. We are ready to sign the next contract to expand the program. We are already in substantive talks with industry and ready to act flexibly. We understand this is the future of Russian aviation,” Alexandrovsky noted.

The Federation Council committee’s session demonstrated that Aeroflot’s current strategy rests on three pillars: route network rationalization, cost control, and fleet renewal. Under external pressure and rising domestic costs, the company is shifting to an flexible, technology-driven management model. Maintaining market leadership will require coordinated action by government, industry and carriers.