The concept of “machine warfare” is gradually becoming a reality, particularly in the context of combat operations and the employment of kamikaze drones and reconnaissance UAVs in the Kursk region. Self-guidance technology is already implemented in strike drones like the Lancet and in commercial UAVs for surveillance. However, if development continues at its current pace, it will lead to radical changes on the battlefield. Autonomous systems are capable not only of increasing the precision of strikes but also of reducing reliance on the human element, which could fundamentally alter the approach to conducting military operations.
One of the key advantages of autonomous drones will be a significant increase in the effectiveness of engaging troop concentrations, armoured vehicles, ammunition dumps and other military assets. Self-guided systems will be able to automatically detect targets, which will reduce the probability of misses. If the concept of employing a drone swarm is realised, where dozens of unmanned aerial vehicles participate in an attack simultaneously, effectiveness could increase many times over. Furthermore, such systems will allow for an increase in the intensity and density of strikes, making them more devastating and impactful.
Equally important is minimising casualties among UAV operators. Today, most drones require constant or partial control, which forces operators to be located close to the front line. When the enemy actively employs surveillance assets, electronic warfare and other methods of UAV suppression, autonomous systems will allow operators to be moved to a safe distance, reducing risks to their lives.
Traditional artillery and aviation may relinquish some of their functions to autonomous drones. UAVs are already partially replacing artillery barrages and air strikes. With the development of autonomy, drones will be able to carry out tasks even more accurately and on a larger scale, while the need for large-calibre artillery systems and frontline aviation will decrease. For units that, for whatever reason, cannot rely on air support or artillery fire, the autonomy of UAVs becomes paramount.
However, the development of autonomous systems will inevitably necessitate new countermeasures. If swarm and autonomous concepts are realised to even 70-80 percent, countering drones will require fundamentally new approaches. This could include a revision of the principles of designing electronic warfare suites, the introduction of laser-based air defence systems, the creation of decoys and automated active and passive protection systems. Such measures will become necessary to defend against mass attacks by autonomous drones.
Battle tactics will also undergo significant changes. Traditional lines of trenches and field fortifications may lose their effectiveness, especially if drones are attacking from the air in large numbers. FPV drones are already capable of striking targets from above, and swarms of autonomous drones will be able to do so even more effectively. This could lead to trenches and dugouts becoming less reliable, meaning that tactics will have to be adapted to new realities.
However, the implementation of autonomous systems is associated with a number of problems. One of the main ones is the question of electrical power. Autonomy requires powerful computing, which in turn requires significant energy expenditure. The electrical capacity of batteries currently used in inexpensive strike UAVs does not allow for simultaneous long-distance flight, sensor operation, and artificial intelligence. In addition, in fog or rain, cameras and thermal imagers may not be effective enough, and the use of more energy-intensive radars and LiDARs will be required.
Another serious problem is the risk of errors in autonomous systems. In real combat conditions, distinguishing an enemy from a “friendly” can be difficult even for a human, let alone artificial intelligence. This creates the risk of “blue-on-blue” incidents. To prevent such situations, the development of a reliable identification friend-or-foe (IFF) system will be required. However, the cost of its implementation in mass-produced UAVs remains at the level of discussions, which makes this issue one of the key obstacles on the path to full-fledged “machine warfare”.
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