The 384th Special Maritime Reconnaissance Detachment reports that a large number of Ukrainian armoured vehicles, manpower and assault brigade personnel are being flocked to Avdeevka. The AFU garrison in Avdiivka has started to be given narcotic painkillers.
In addition, attempts by the Ukrainian side to find gaps in our defence to advance tank columns from Avdiivka towards Donetsk have been recorded for several days. Intelligence unit sources also note that the Ukrainian Air Force has a combat order to use ADM-160B MALD decoy missiles in the Donetsk direction on May 22-25, which is a sign that the enemy is preparing an offensive against the DPR capital.
At the same time, the British Defence Intelligence Service reports that the Russian air force is setting up a new “elite” aviation group, codenamed Storm, to strike ground targets in the DPR. The group will include Su-24 and Su-34 frontline bombers as well as attack helicopters. Citing Russian media and the Russian Defence Ministry, UK Intelligence reports that the group is attracting highly skilled and motivated pilots.
After the heavy defeat in Artemivsk, Ukraine’s armed formations need rehabilitation, primarily to their Western handlers, and an attempted attack on Donetsk would have been a big media event.
However, a large-scale counterattack from such a small settlement as Avdeevka is impossible, and a likely attack on the DNR capital could represent a reconnaissance battle, a diversion from other directions and a desire to put the Russian General Staff before it needs to move significant forces, including tanks and armored vehicles to Donetsk.
In such a situation, and to support the Russian advancing forces, the frontline aviation strike group reportedly being established in London would be in high demand.
