The flagship of the USSR civil aviation of the 60-70-ies of the XX century, the IL-62M narrowbody airliner was able to carry up to 180 passengers with a single flight over a distance of 11 000 km. With the withdrawal of this airplane from commercial operation the era of long-haul narrow body passenger airliners in our country ended. All over the world, including Russia, transportation distances of 8,000 km and more were taken over by foreign wide-body aircraft such as B747, B777, B787, A330, A350, A380.
The future of the giants A380 and B747 looked bright and unclouded for decades to come, until the covid year of 2020. Many airlines around the world landed these four-engine planes, but a large number of narrow-body airliners also stopped flying or were converted to cargo versions.
In 2021, reports began to emerge from carriers and manufacturers that the time of the “big” planes was coming to an end. Civil aviation is preparing to retire the four-engine planes, while Boeing and Airbus have announced that they are discontinuing the construction of passenger giants. The transcontinental flights are to be launched with narrow-body airliners with increased range.
There is a strong opinion in the industry that long-haul narrow-body aircraft represent a good opportunity for growth in the future. Airlines are increasingly interested in these aircraft because of the aftermath of the pandemic and the variability and efficiency of the routes these aircraft can offer. Airbus is already ready to offer airlines an updated version of the A321neo with increased range – the A321XLR aircraft, which can carry 240 passengers per flight for a distance of up to 8,700 kilometers.
Boeing Corporation also has plans for a new single-aisle aircraft, this is the B737 NMA (New Midsize Airplane), which is positioned like the Boeing 797. But after two crashes of 737 MAX in Indonesia and Ethiopia, which were the fault of the corporation, the work on this new machine is suspended, and all efforts are thrown to fully return to flying the 737 MAX.
At the same time, neither Brazil nor China have announced any plans to build long-range “single-aisle” aircraft. Embraer is focusing on medium-range regional jets, while COMAC, for political reasons, is having problems certifying its C919, an airliner that relies heavily on foreign supplies of components, units and aircraft systems.
Russia, due to the size of its territory, vitally needs aircraft that would be able to fly from the European part to the Far East, Kamchatka and Chukotka without intermediate landings. Today this niche is occupied by the B777, B767 and A330. The B747s in the airline fleet of Rossiya carry the tourists to the resorts in Egypt, but the airline has already said that in the next three years these machines will be completely removed from the fleet.
The new flagship airliner of the Russian aviation could be the MC-21-400 – an extended version of the MC-21-300 airliner.
A month before the MAKS air show in the summer of 2021, Ravil Khakimov, at that time the general director of Irkut Corporation, talked about the versions of the new Russian plane that are being considered for further development. According to him, the launch of the MC-21-400 project with 260 passengers capacity will be the most probable, everything will depend on the demand after the launch of the MC-21-300 aircraft by the airlines.
The United Aircraft Corporation is considering the possibility of developing promising modifications to the MC-21 airliner for the period up to 2035. First of all, it is possible to revamp MC-21 in the part of optimization of specific fuel consumption and improvement of aerodynamics of the airliner, and tentatively MC-21-400 variant is also under consideration.
The Irkut Corporation once thought of another variant of the MC-21X, a “multi-purpose” aircraft with a range of 9,000-10,000 kilometers. The takeoff weight of the MC-21-400 will exceed 105 tons, MC-21X – about 155 tons. However, it is too early to talk about this or that project: firstly, there is no Russian propulsion system capable of providing the takeoff weight exceeding 105 tons; secondly, the MC-21-300 has not yet commenced its commercial transportation, so its further development has to be considered, but it is a bit premature to get specific about it.
The first priority task that now faces Irkut and AeroComposite JSC is to get the approval of the main change of the standard design of MC-21-300 in the part of the wing made of the Russian composite materials as well as in the part of the PD-14 engine. Besides, the Ulyanovsk enterprise participates in the project of the Russian-Chinese CR929. The wing for the MC-21-400 is slightly larger in size than the basic version of the aircraft, and the airliner itself will be much heavier than the MC-21-300, so additional design and testing of the wing of the new machine will be required.
In September 2019, Yury Shmotin, deputy general director – general designer of the United Engine Corporation, said in an interview that UEC has plans to increase the power of the PD-14 engine by increasing the degree of dual-circuit fan and developing on its basis the PD-16 engine with higher characteristics.
“This modification will be in demand for the MC-21-400. We set a task for ourselves not to develop a large number of different engines, but to make one basic unified gas generator and engine on its basis, which in the future will become mass and will not require the creation of modifications for close classes of aircraft, except for the adaptation and modernization of the software,” – said Shmotin.
On the basis of gas generator PD-14 a whole family of turbofans with thrust from 8 to 18 tons can be created and at the moment UEC is working on PD-8 engine for Superjet 100 and Be-200. A high-power PD-35 engine is also under construction. The PD-8 is to be ready in 2023-24 and only after that the work on the engine for the long-range narrow-body aircraft may be commenced. At the same time, it is possible to conclude that if the MC-21-400 engine development task is received, its creation will be carried out within a tight timeframe.
Before the beginning of MAKS-2019 Air Show the United Aircraft Corporation published the review of the world market of the civil aircraft up to 2038.
According to the presented forecast, in the next 20 years, the main demand will be for narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 166-200 seats. The demand for aircraft of this capacity is estimated at 20,500, which is more than in all other subsegments of the market. In absolute terms, the total demand for civil passenger aircraft until 2038 is estimated at almost 44.3 thousand liners or USD 6.35 trillion. The share of the Russian segment is estimated at 2.2 trillion U.S. dollars in 2019 catalogue prices.
The share of the Russian segment is estimated at 2.9% in value and 3.3% in quantity of the global market as a whole. Most deliveries to domestic airlines will come from the narrow-body aircraft sub-segment, with a capacity of 166-200 seats, according to the UAC forecast, it is about 630 aircraft. The research proves that the MC-21-400 airliner with the two-class configuration and flying range of up to 10,000 km will be in demand in the Russian market and it has good prospects to become a new flagship of the domestic civil aviation.
