RuAviation

The IL-62M, the flagship of Soviet civil aviation in the 1960s–1970s, was a narrow-body airliner capable of carrying up to 180 passengers over a distance of 11,000 km. With the retirement of this aircraft from commercial service, the era of long-haul narrow-body airliners in Russia came to an end. Globally, including in Russia, long-range flights of 8,000 km and more are handled by foreign wide-body aircraft such as the Boeing 747, 777, 787, and Airbus A330, A350, and A380.

For decades, the future of “jumbo” aircraft like the A380 and B747 appeared secure, until the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Many airlines grounded these four-engine aircraft, while numerous narrow-body planes were either withdrawn from service or converted to freighters.

By 2021, industry reports indicated that the era of large four-engine airliners was nearing its end. Civil aviation began preparing for the gradual retirement of these aircraft, and both Boeing and Airbus announced plans to discontinue production of passenger giants. Future long-haul operations are expected to rely on narrow-body airliners with extended range.

There is a growing consensus that long-haul narrow-body aircraft represent a significant growth opportunity. Airlines are increasingly interested in these aircraft due to pandemic-related shifts and the operational flexibility these aircraft offer. Airbus has already introduced the A321XLR, an extended-range variant of the A321neo, capable of carrying 240 passengers up to 8,700 km.

Boeing also announced plans for a new single-aisle aircraft, the 737 NMA (New Midsize Airplane), sometimes referred to as the Boeing 797. However, following two 737 MAX crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, development has been suspended, with Boeing focusing on fully restoring the 737 MAX to service.

Meanwhile, neither Brazil nor China has announced plans to produce long-range single-aisle aircraft. Embraer continues to focus on medium-range regional jets, while COMAC faces certification challenges with the C919, which relies heavily on imported components, systems, and assemblies.

Given the vastness of its territory, Russia requires aircraft capable of flying from the European part of the country to the Far East, Kamchatka, and Chukotka without intermediate stops. Today, this niche is served by the Boeing 777, 767, and Airbus A330. B747s in Rossiya’s fleet currently transport tourists to Egyptian resorts, but the airline has announced that these aircraft will be fully retired within the next three years.

The new potential flagship of Russian civil aviation is the MC-21-400, an extended version of the MC-21-300.

A month before the MAKS air show in 2021, Ravil Khakimov, then General Director of Irkut Corporation, discussed potential variants of the MC-21. He noted that the MC-21-400, with a capacity of 260 passengers, is the most likely development path, depending on airline demand following the launch of the MC-21-300.

United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) is exploring promising modifications of the MC-21 through 2035. Planned improvements include optimization of specific fuel consumption and enhancements to aerodynamics. A potential MC-21-400 variant is also under consideration.

Irkut Corporation has also conceptualized an MC-21X “multi-purpose” variant with a range of 9,000–10,000 km. The maximum takeoff weight of the MC-21-400 is expected to exceed 105 tons, while the MC-21X could reach approximately 155 tons. However, these projects remain in the early conceptual stage: Russia currently lacks a propulsion system capable of supporting takeoff weights above 105 tons, and the MC-21-300 has not yet entered commercial service.

The immediate priority for Irkut and AeroComposite JSC is certification of the MC-21-300 with its Russian composite wing and PD-14 engine. Additionally, the Ulyanovsk enterprise is participating in the Russian-Chinese CR929 project. The MC-21-400 will feature a slightly larger wing and higher takeoff weight than the base model, requiring additional design and testing.

In September 2019, Yury Shmotin, Deputy General Director and Chief Designer of United Engine Corporation (UEC), stated that UEC plans to increase PD-14 thrust by enhancing its two-spool fan and developing the PD-16 engine with higher performance.

“This modification will be in demand for the MC-21-400. Our goal is to develop a single core engine that can serve multiple aircraft types, requiring only software adaptation and modernization for different classes,” Shmotin explained.

From the PD-14 core, a family of engines ranging from 8 to 18 tons of thrust can be developed. UEC is currently working on the PD-8 for the Superjet 100 and Be-200, as well as the high-thrust PD-35. The PD-8 is expected to be ready in 2023–24, after which work on an engine for a long-range narrow-body aircraft may begin. If approved, development of the MC-21-400 engine would proceed on a tight schedule.

Ahead of MAKS-2019, UAC published a forecast of the global civil aircraft market through 2038. The forecast projects strong demand over the next 20 years for narrow-body aircraft with 166–200 seats, estimated at 20,500 units—the largest subsegment by volume. Overall demand for civil passenger aircraft is projected at nearly 44,300 units, worth USD 6.35 trillion at 2019 catalogue prices. Russia’s market share is projected at USD 2.2 trillion, or 2.9% by value and 3.3% by quantity.

Most deliveries to Russian airlines are expected to come from the narrow-body segment, roughly 630 aircraft. Research indicates that the MC-21-400, configured for two classes with a range of up to 10,000 km, will meet domestic demand and has strong potential to become Russia’s new civil aviation flagship.